We use a proprietary internal model that translates OIS-implied rates into probabilities across multiple potential rate outcomes (e.g. hold, 10 bps cut, 25 bps cut). This methodology mirrors institutional practices used by traders and analysts — without oversimplifying or introducing artificial rounding.

While we don’t disclose our exact formula, our model is built to reflect real market behavior and provides clear, timely estimates for each BoC meeting.

Implied probabilities differ across sources due to:

• Different assumptions (e.g. size of potential rate moves)
• Different market inputs (e.g. futures vs swaps)
• Different modeling techniques (e.g. basic linear math vs scenario optimization)

Bloomberg’s WIRP<GO> is useful but often assumes only one move per meeting and may not reflect real-time OIS volatility. We designed BankofCanadaodds.com to be BoC-specific, nimble, and transparent — giving users a closer read of Canada’s rate expectations.

See full explanation → Why Probabilities Vary.

We update our implied probabilities multiple times per day during trading hours. The frequency depends on market volatility and the release of new data that affects swap or futures pricing.

You’ll always see the latest available market expectations — not a stale snapshot.

• CORRA (Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average) is the Bank of Canada’s risk-free benchmark for short-term borrowing.
• OIS (Overnight Index Swaps) are derivatives where one party pays a fixed rate, and the other pays the average overnight rate (like CORRA) over a set period.

By analyzing the pricing of OIS contracts that mature after specific BoC meeting dates, we can infer how markets expect the policy rate to move.

No, it means the market is pricing in a 70% chance of that outcome based on available information. These are not forecasts or guarantees, they reflect current market consensus, which changes constantly with economic data, policy signals, and global developments.

Absolutely. Whether you're a:

• Mortgage broker or borrower watching rate risks
• Investor managing rate-sensitive assets
• Economist or journalist analyzing monetary policy
• Policy watcher or student

…BankofCanadaodds.com gives you a real-time, visual lens into how markets are thinking about the BoC

We use public and institutional-grade data sources, including:

• OIS market pricing
• CORRA benchmarks
• BoC policy calendars

We process and update this data through our internal pipeline to ensure accuracy, speed, and transparency.

Yes; with attribution. You’re welcome to reference or embed our visuals and insights in media reports, research, and social commentary as long as you credit BankofCanadaodds.com.

For commercial or custom data access, please contact us.

We’re a team of market analysts, product builders, and data nerds who wanted a simple, transparent way to track Canadian interest rate expectations — without needing a $20K terminal subscription

Our mission is to democratize access to this data and help everyone — not just insiders — understand where rates are headed.